When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 288% implied yield versus 117.7% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of submission risk or minimal market maker confidence.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 288% implied yield versus 117.7% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of submission risk or minimal market maker confidence. The 9¢ spread on a 48¢ price and negligible $0 daily volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 48% probability potentially unreliable given only $39 in open interest. With 198 days to expiry and a modest Cliff Risk Index of 2, the market appears to be a low-conviction speculation rather than a reliable forecast of COMPASS's FDA submission timeline.
Resolution rules
If COMPASS Pathways plc submits a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPLICATIONCMPS-360-26NOV01 yes 100