When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 9¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trader interest in what should be a material biotech milestone.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 9¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trader interest in what should be a material biotech milestone. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability, yet the theoretical Yes yield of 8576.9% indicates the market is severely mispriced if there's any genuine chance of an NDA submission within 138 days—a timeframe that aligns with typical late-stage clinical trial progression for psilocybin programs. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ combined with the high cliff risk index (32) suggests this is a dead market with minimal liquidity, making any position highly illiquid and difficult to exit.
Resolution rules
If COMPASS Pathways plc submits a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPLICATIONCMPS-360-26SEP01 yes 100