When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The dramatic asymmetry in implied yields—60.3% for Yes versus 328.1% for No—suggests severe mispricing or that traders view the No outcome as heavily undervalued relative to the 21% probability it represents. With 260 days to expiry and a modest 9¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market, warranting caution before treating the price as a meaningful forecast of COMPASS's FDA submission timeline.
Resolution rules
If COMPASS Pathways plc submits a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPLICATIONCMPS-360-27JAN01 yes 100