SimpleFunctions

Before Oct 1, 2026 · When will OpenAI IPO?: Before

Before Oct 1, 2026 is priced at 59¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 53¢ bid, 60¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 13 inside When will OpenAI IPO?: Before.

Price history

59¢ current

+44¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 20, 2026May 20, 2026

Contract brief

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Oct 1, 2026

Rank

#9 of 13

Leader

Before May 1, 2027 90¢

Range

1¢-90¢

Family volume

$226K

Identifier

KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01

May 20, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

59¢
Latest venue quote
May 20, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

53¢

Ask

60¢

Spread

24h volume

$25K

Family rank

#9 of 13

13 outcomes · When will OpenAI IPO?: Before

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Family volume

$226K

Orderbook snapshot

53 / 60¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
53¢8
52¢745
51¢32
50¢19
41¢7
AskSize
60¢519
62¢32
63¢159
64¢300
68¢9

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Identifier

KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01

SF Signal
SF Index
279.77
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

233.2%

IY (No)

321.4%

Adj IY

280%

CRI

1

RV

3933%

VR

20.91

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

233.2%
321.4%
Adj IY
280%
1
RV
3933%
VR
20.91
IAR
3.8/h
Overround
6.8%
LAS
0.13

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.