When will OpenAI IPO
Leader sits at 91% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 1, 2027
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Before May 1, 2027
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$368
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
358 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will OpenAI IPO
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXIPOOPENAI-27JAN01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before May 1, 2027
KXIPOOPENAI-27MAY01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXIPOOPENAI-27MAR01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXIPOOPENAI-27JUN01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXIPOOPENAI-27FEB01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXIPOOPENAI-27APR01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXIPOOPENAI-26NOV01
When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXIPOOPENAI-26DEC01
Analysis
This 39% probability reflects the market's assessment that OpenAI will complete an initial public offering before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months from now. The estimate sits between stronger confidence in Anthropic's IPO plans (72%) and weaker confidence in SpaceX timing (10-79% depending on the specific deadline). OpenAI's valuation has been a contentious issue, with the company and investors disagreeing on pricing, which could either accelerate or delay a public offering. The primary catalyst would be any official announcement from OpenAI's leadership regarding IPO timing or a regulatory filing. Near-term developments include decisions by other AI companies and market conditions for high-growth tech stocks, which influence both investor appetite and company readiness to go public.
- ›OpenAI and major stakeholders have not publicly announced IPO plans or filed preliminary documents as of early May 2026
- ›Recent valuations and fundraising rounds have shown disagreement between the company and investors, potentially delaying IPO readiness
- ›Comparable AI company IPO timelines (Anthropic at 72% probability for announcement before November 2026) provide market benchmarks
- ›The tech IPO market conditions and investor appetite for AI companies in mid-2026 directly affect timing feasibility
- ›Company profitability, revenue milestones, and governance structure must meet SEC requirements before any offering can proceed
What moved the line
- Jun 1Before Oct 1, 2026↓4pp56→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp81→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp78→75¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before Sep 1, 2026↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ai tech
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.0T-1.5Tlast 3% · 0d
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 5d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 6d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 8d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
AI Model Race Intensifies: Claude Mythos Release Jumps 25 Cents
Anthropic is the favorite for best AI model in June at 85 cents, but the big story is the Claude Mythos release timeline. The market for a Mythos release by June 15 surged 25 cents to 46 cents, while the Claude 5 release by June 30 rose 8 cents to 37 cents. This signals a major AI release cycle is imminent.
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.