SimpleFunctions

Before Nov 1, 2026 · When will OpenAI IPO?: Before

Before Nov 1, 2026 is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 77¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 13 inside When will OpenAI IPO?: Before.

Price history

81¢ current

+50¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Apr 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Contract brief

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Nov 1, 2026

Rank

#8 of 13

Leader

Before Apr 1, 2027 91¢

Range

1¢-91¢

Family volume

$263K

Identifier

KXIPOOPENAI-26NOV01

May 21, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 18m ago

Implied probability

81¢
Latest venue quote
May 21, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 18m ago

Bid

77¢

Ask

81¢

Spread

24h volume

$12K

Family rank

#8 of 13

13 outcomes · When will OpenAI IPO?: Before

Closes

Nov 1, 2026

Family volume

$263K

Orderbook snapshot

77 / 81¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
77¢71
76¢14
75¢65
74¢560
70¢20
AskSize
81¢122
82¢520
87¢21
90¢7.0K
92¢37

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 1, 2026

Identifier

KXIPOOPENAI-26NOV01

SF Signal
SF Index
706.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

66.4%

IY (No)

744.7%

Adj IY

706%

CRI

3

RV

2655%

VR

14.09

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

high

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

66.4%
744.7%
Adj IY
706%
3
RV
2655%
VR
14.09
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
6.8%
LAS
0.05

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.