When will OpenAI IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 66% probability of OpenAI's IPO by May 2027, but the extremely thin liquidity ($1 daily volume, $1,482 open interest) and wide 5¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 66% probability of OpenAI's IPO by May 2027, but the extremely thin liquidity ($1 daily volume, $1,482 open interest) and wide 5¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—49.6% for Yes versus 186.9% for No—indicate the market is heavily skewed toward the Yes outcome, creating an unusually attractive risk-reward for contrarian No bettors willing to accept the illiquidity risk. The slight 2¢ price decline over seven days combined with neutral regime conditions suggests the market lacks directional momentum despite the long 379-day timeframe.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-27MAY01 yes 100