When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression?
Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $91.08 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $91.08 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 10¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the symmetric 58.5% implied yield on both sides suggests the market lacks conviction or active price discovery. With 624 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the modest 2¢ price movement over seven days reflects the dormancy, though the 29% risk-adjusted yield indicates meaningful uncertainty around COMP360's regulatory timeline.
Resolution rules
If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDAAPPROVALDATECMPS-360-28JAN01 yes 100