When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $23 open interest and $1.93 in 24-hour volume, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $23 open interest and $1.93 in 24-hour volume, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 102.9% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 51% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting either genuine optimism about approval odds or simply illiquidity-driven mispricing. With 532 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, there's minimal near-term catalyst risk, though the wide 10¢ spread and stagnant price action indicate this market lacks meaningful trader interest.
Resolution rules
If the FDA approves Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema for marketing before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDAAPPROVALDATENTLA-LONV-27OCT01 yes 100