When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema?
Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $15.39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 70¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $15.39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 70¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market consensus. The asymmetric implied yields—39% for Yes versus 87.7% for No—suggest significant mispricing or that the No side is heavily undervalued, though the wide 10¢ spread reflects the illiquidity challenge. With 624 days to expiry and a modest 4¢ price gain over seven days, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market participation rather than an actively traded contract.
Resolution rules
If the FDA approves Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDAAPPROVALDATENTLA-LONV-28JAN01 yes 100