Where will Trump and Putin next meet?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Where will Trump and Putin next meet?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 8¢ spread despite nearly 1,000 days to expiry, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 8¢ spread despite nearly 1,000 days to expiry, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome. The 884.7% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the low 14¢ price and thin order book, making the risk-adjusted yield of 442% more meaningful but still reflecting substantial uncertainty pricing. The stable 4¢ price over seven days and moderate 24 Cliff Risk Index indicate the market hasn't reacted to recent geopolitical developments, potentially representing an inefficient pricing opportunity if traders believe a Trump-Putin Germany meeting is more or less likely than the current 14% probability suggests.
Resolution rules
If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in Germany before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-GER yes 100