Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

This market prices OpenAI's chances of holding the second-best model at just 9¢, implying roughly a 91% probability that another company (likely Anthropic, Google, or Meta) will occupy that position by June 2026. The extreme 5,169% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects the massive asymmetry between the 9¢ price and potential payout, though the thin $87.50 daily volume and wide 4¢ spread suggest limited liquidity and potential mispricing. With 71 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 1,990%, this is a highly speculative bet on OpenAI's competitive positioning in a rapidly evolving AI landscape where model rankings shift frequently.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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