Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6,551.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe undervaluation of Bangladesh recognition odds at just 7 cents.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6,551.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe undervaluation of Bangladesh recognition odds at just 7 cents. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $9.7k open interest and a 3-cent spread indicates dangerously low liquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and creating significant execution risk for any trade. With a Cliff Risk Index of 13 and only seven months until June 30 expiry, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero probability despite Bangladesh's recent diplomatic shifts, though the lack of trading activity warrants extreme caution before committing capital.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x32711a62e5210aa2a770358c0d7762c26c7b39c1a169d10543675f26f1952435 yes 100