What is the current probability for "Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10100.3% and 28.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 3/6¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $6,600·OI $15,609.622·69d remaining

0x344a8fae463bbcd52cba6f4f0ba388518b24115c8423f3158ae60eac98282e57

7-day price16 snapshots · 4 regime

6¢5¢ current

Apr 92¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10100.3%

IY (No) 28.0%

Adj IY 1010%

CRI 19

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.80

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10100.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	28.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1010%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.80	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:22:54 AM

Observability lowEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x344a8fae463bbcd52cba6f4f0ba388518b24115c8423f3158ae60eac98282e57 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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