Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7735.7% implied yield on the Yes side, yet zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread suggest severe illiquidity masking the true probability of Pakistani recognition. The 7-cent price has declined from 10¢ over seven days despite an extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1697%, indicating the market may be anchored to outdated information or suffering from thin order books rather than reflecting genuine fundamental shifts. With only ~7 months until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, any credible diplomatic developments toward Israeli-Pakistani normalization could trigger sharp repricing, but current conditions suggest this is a speculative trap rather than a genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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