What is the current probability for "Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Polymarket. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4303.0% and 65.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 9/12¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $54.09·OI $14,491.86·69d remaining

0xfd0c9092cd2b2059c1487de5fc2145f19702d314039a8d10df55d206d08058f1

7-day price339 snapshots · 2 regime

19¢11¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4303.0%

IY (No) 65.7%

Adj IY 4303%

CRI 8

RV 763%

VR 1.11

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4303.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	65.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4303%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	763%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.11	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:58:15 AM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xfd0c9092cd2b2059c1487de5fc2145f19702d314039a8d10df55d206d08058f1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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