Will Anatoly Yakovenko appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Anatoly Yakovenko appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $223k open interest, and the 48¢ spread suggests significant pricing uncertainty around a guest appearance with 259 days to resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $223k open interest, and the 48¢ spread suggests significant pricing uncertainty around a guest appearance with 259 days to resolution. The 220% implied yield on the Yes side is notably asymmetric compared to 90% on the No side, indicating the market may be overpricing tail risk or reflecting genuine scarcity of comparable appearance data. The realized volatility of 2,380% and vol ratio of 18.45 are extraordinarily high relative to the neutral regime, suggesting this market experiences sporadic, large price swings driven by low-frequency information arrivals (7.2/hour) rather than continuous trading.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2586a25aa35e605a2078eb694cded19c9aa72fd426f1c113c2d0f4c981677d6e yes 100