Will Vitalik Buterin appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Vitalik Buterin appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $899k open interest, suggesting the $0.11 price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $899k open interest, suggesting the $0.11 price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 16¢ spread and astronomical 1140% implied yield on the Yes side indicate severe mispricing risk, likely driven by low trading activity rather than informed positioning. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 11% probability appears artificially depressed given Vitalik's prominence in crypto and the UpOnly podcast's Ethereum focus, though the high cliff risk index (8) warns of potential resolution complications.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2aecec356a7a750da269869b80cd4c037d9a29230b0b75575a4f81baa000019c yes 100