Will Su Zhu appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Su Zhu appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 23¢ price reflects extremely low conviction with a massive 32¢ bid-ask spread representing 139% of the midpoint, indicating severe illiquidity despite $223 open interest.
Analysis
The 23¢ price reflects extremely low conviction with a massive 32¢ bid-ask spread representing 139% of the midpoint, indicating severe illiquidity despite $223 open interest. The astronomical 472% implied yield on the Yes side combined with extreme realized volatility of 1213% and a Vol Ratio of 8.23 suggests this is a highly speculative micro-market where the 23¢ price may not reflect true probability but rather thin liquidity and wide uncertainty. The sharp 9¢ decline over seven days coupled with only $20 in 24-hour volume raises questions about whether this price discovery is meaningful or simply reflects minimal trading activity in a low-conviction market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
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sf trade 0x45d5c177c789fd3b1abc3f1f3bfe4ab28e5553aa4fd8bd5d83572dfda751476d yes 100