Will Thomas Lee appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over 8 months until expiry, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 55¢ bid-ask spread that dwarfs the 48¢ midprice. The 2551% realized volatility and 160% implied yield on the Yes side suggest sporadic large trades are driving wild price swings—the position has dropped 10¢ in just seven days—making this highly speculative and potentially difficult to exit at fair value. With only $157.6k open interest and a 6.3 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a niche market with minimal institutional participation, so any position should account for significant execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

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Regime

Trade