What is the current probability for "Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 45¢ (45% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 117.3% and 190.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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45¢

Bid/Ask 17/72¢·Spread 55¢·Vol $0·OI $85.833·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0x5ab165053e4658271eb3f6a6fd36f59169b076fd7583971a6543dc6b0a12fb1d

7-day price2000 snapshots · 5 regime

58¢54¢ current

Apr 2028¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 117.3%

IY (No) 190.1%

Adj IY 3%

CRI 1

RV 1544%

VR 12.76

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	117.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	190.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1544%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	12.76	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.98	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

55¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:45:09 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x5ab165053e4658271eb3f6a6fd36f59169b076fd7583971a6543dc6b0a12fb1d yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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