Will Guy Young appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Guy Young appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing 46% over seven days from 26¢ to 14¢, yet maintains an extraordinarily high implied yield of 866% on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and a wide 15¢ spread—suggesting illiquidity is driving the outsized return metric rather than genuine edge.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing 46% over seven days from 26¢ to 14¢, yet maintains an extraordinarily high implied yield of 866% on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and a wide 15¢ spread—suggesting illiquidity is driving the outsized return metric rather than genuine edge. The 1,768% realized volatility and 9.4 vol ratio indicate this is a highly unstable micro-cap position with minimal trading activity, making the 14% probability potentially unreliable as a true market consensus. With 259 days to expiry and only $769K open interest, this appears to be a speculative long-tail market where the extreme price movements may reflect thin order books rather than new information about Guy Young's podcast appearance likelihood.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
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Trade
sf trade 0x852efefbf590bf85c3f80574e11744ee3ae0c08e69d161bd63132cc5e445849f yes 100