Will Ansem appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Ansem appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 32¢ price reflects modest conviction that Ansem won't appear on UpOnly by year-end, but the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1886% and a 10.53 vol ratio suggest extreme price swings despite only $62 in daily volume, indicating low liquidity and potential for sharp moves on minimal trading.
Analysis
The 32¢ price reflects modest conviction that Ansem won't appear on UpOnly by year-end, but the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1886% and a 10.53 vol ratio suggest extreme price swings despite only $62 in daily volume, indicating low liquidity and potential for sharp moves on minimal trading. The Yes side's 299.5% implied yield is notably attractive, though the 22¢ spread and thin open interest of just $986.53 create execution risk. With 259 days to expiry and a recent 33% price jump from 24¢ to 32¢, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where guest appearance announcements could trigger significant repricing.
Also on kalshi at 18¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbdc36c0940e6c9a2ce8f7d0ab497149f71388c049d8d5d505a4e4e15c381bee9 yes 100