Will Javier Milei appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

This market has collapsed dramatically from 42¢ to 5¢ over seven days, suggesting either new negative information about Milei's likelihood of appearing or a general reassessment of the event's probability. The 2208.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high, indicating extreme mispricing or severe illiquidity—backed by only $908 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making this a highly speculative position with minimal market depth. With 259 days remaining until expiry and a realized volatility of 2121%, this market exhibits classic characteristics of a low-liquidity, high-uncertainty event where the 4¢ spread represents substantial execution risk for any meaningful position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

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