What is the current probability for "Will Travis Etienne be traded?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on July 22, 2026. 91 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Travis Etienne be traded?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2112.7% and 76.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Travis Etienne be traded?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Travis Etienne be traded?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Travis Etienne be traded?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing July 22, 2026. This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1720% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 83% on "No," suggesting either severe mispricing or heavy skew toward "No" bets from risk-averse traders.

██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

16¢

Bid/Ask 2/31¢·Spread 29¢·Vol $1.78·OI $94.803·Closes Jul 22, 2026·91d remaining

0x3d5c295dcdd0c8b346b8c51c6fdf9c98a460187bbb0cb11665ccbe76bd122da0

7-day price2000 snapshots · 4 regime

22¢16¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1720% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 83% on "No," suggesting either severe mispricing or heavy skew toward "No" bets from risk-averse traders. The 22¢ spread and minimal $12.32 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings, while the 6877% realized volatility and 12.78 vol ratio signal this market experiences sharp, unpredictable moves despite the relatively stable 7-day price holding at 16-17¢. With 97 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 5, any breaking NFL news about Etienne could trigger significant repricing in either direction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2112.7%

IY (No) 76.6%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 5

RV 3949%

VR 10.21

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2112.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	76.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3949%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	10.21	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.75	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:07:03 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:08:33 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x3d5c295dcdd0c8b346b8c51c6fdf9c98a460187bbb0cb11665ccbe76bd122da0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →