Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
This contract is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 3¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
6
Family volume
$468K
Best sibling
Meta 3¢
Ticker
0x2cd20a6f…2eaf
Market snapshot
Microsoft in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?. The displayed quote is 6¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $40. In the Who will acquire TikTok? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
Microsoft
Family rank
#1 of 6
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
6¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$40
Family context
6 outcomes · Who will acquire TikTok?
Quote range
3¢-6¢
Family leader
Microsoft 6¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC · 0m ago
Venue identifier: 0x2cd20a6f60ad515239800fd8e2bf2594e89454ee31c6b1a92e00c97321e82eaf. Family volume: $468K.
Price history
6¢ current
−10¢Orderbook snapshot
4 / 7¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x2cd20a6f…2eaf
Event family
Who will acquire TikTok.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$468K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Microsoft 6¢
Current share
22%
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x2cd20a6f60ad515239800fd8e2bf2594e89454ee31c6b1a92e00c97321e82eaf
Meta
polymarket · 0x3e0b13bc9015cb70291550966d375d73d9c8bf494ffb1d2169a3e6141a1f7574
Elon Musk / X (Twitter)
polymarket · 0x626d23dfc73f5e83707de16ebbbedb9c5de8998fabe26b15f724ea5e5d4b3dd0
Amazon
polymarket · 0xdf0ad9c59a828228b41abe1c1194f80facb936b0bb70a5de6c7a742fcd3d278f
Walmart
polymarket · 0x4dc83876f4e36b4e41bc897c42c7b791d3baead9e41d6e916663cc801db33c0c
AppLovin
polymarket · 0x1092e16a9e18ffeadedb8e4c1363d773a9c1b2dc89946155a1581a77cc44ca26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders
Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 6% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.