Will TikTok be banned in the US?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 7 contracts. Kalshi at 23%, Polymarket at 42% — a 19pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
2 contracts
Polymarket
42%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
19pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$70
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
573 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 23¢ · Polymarket 42¢ · 19pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (23¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (42¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Which companies will the US take a stake in” vs “Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which companies will the US take a stake in
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Rigetti
0xf179f5…2a9f
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: TikTok US / Bytedance
0xe61206…246c
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Nvidia
0xf86df8…97f1
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Samsung Electronics
0xbabf4d…4091
Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anduril
0x11c846…be38
Cluster 2
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?: Before 2028
KXSUPERSONIC-28
Cluster 3
US bans social media for children before 2027
US bans social media for children before 2027?: Yes
KXSOCIALMEDIABAN-27JAN01
Analysis
Prediction markets currently assign near-zero probability to any major tech company acquiring TikTok. While the U.S. government has pursued divestiture efforts, market participants essentially see no likelihood that Microsoft, Meta, Elon Musk, or Walmart will purchase the platform.
- ›No buyer interest from major tech firms
- ›Near-zero market implied acquisition probability
- ›Ongoing U.S. regulatory scrutiny
- ›Broad geopolitical and antitrust headwinds
What moved the line
- Jun 7TikTok US / Bytedance↓15pp47→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Anduril↑9pp39→48¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1TikTok US / Bytedance↑7pp41→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Rigetti↑6pp83→89¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 7Rigetti↓6pp90→84¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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