Who will acquire TikTok
Leader sits at 6% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Microsoft
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Amazon
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$286
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will acquire TikTok
Who will acquire TikTok?: Amazon
0xdf0ad9…278f
Who will acquire TikTok?: Elon Musk / X (Twitter)
0x626d23…3dd0
Who will acquire TikTok?: Microsoft
0x2cd20a…2eaf
Who will acquire TikTok?: Walmart
0x4dc838…3c0c
Who will acquire TikTok?: AppLovin
0x1092e1…ca26
Who will acquire TikTok?: Meta
0x3e0b13…7574
Analysis
This 24% probability represents the market's assessment that TikTok will be acquired by some entity, based on aggregated trading across five separate contracts. The current price reflects ongoing regulatory pressure in the United States, particularly uncertainty around forced divestiture requirements and potential legislative action. The probability remains relatively modest because acquisition faces structural obstacles: TikTok's valuation at $100+ billion presents financing challenges, Chinese government approval uncertainty complicates any deal structure, and alternative outcomes like settlement with regulators or operational restrictions carry meaningful probability weight. The market appears to be pricing in moderate likelihood of an acquisition scenario rather than treating it as the base case outcome. Key catalyst points include Congressional actions on TikTok-related legislation, Supreme Court rulings on constitutional challenges, and any announcements from ByteDance regarding negotiations or compliance strategies.
- ›Regulatory timeline: Whether forced divestiture occurs by 2025/2026 deadline or faces legal delays that reduce acquisition urgency
- ›Buyer identification: No announced bidder with clear financial capacity and regulatory clearance to complete an acquisition at current valuation estimates
- ›Chinese government approval: ByteDance's willingness to divest and Beijing's authorization of any sale significantly constrains deal probability
- ›Alternative outcomes: Settlement agreements, modified content algorithms, or operational restrictions may resolve regulatory pressure without triggering acquisition
- ›Financing constraints: Required buyer would need $100+ billion+ acquisition budget plus regulatory approval, limiting candidate pool substantially
What moved the line
- May 3Walmart↑25pp2→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Meta↓24pp27→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Walmart↓21pp27→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6AppLovin↓20pp25→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Microsoft↓3pp10→7¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.