Arman Tsarukyan · Who will become a UFC champion in 2026
Arman Tsarukyan is priced at 42¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 13¢ bid, 79¢ ask, 66¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?.
Price history
42¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Arman Tsarukyan
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Arman Tsarukyan 51¢
Range
3¢-51¢
Family volume
$162K
Identifier
0xffd9a91d...8c81
Jun 5, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
79¢
Spread
66¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$162K
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 79¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xffd9a91d…8c81
Event family
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$162K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Arman Tsarukyan 51¢
Current share
1%
Arman Tsarukyan
polymarket · 0xffd9a91d5a03eea092aff4f6f878ea668023cbb27a2c247aa00c1a24cbd78c81
Alexandre Pantoja
polymarket · 0x0fb843bf13b1b59c0349b5dbb0c10272d287db9aeac1f9ca8e966b4f6588e034
Manel Kape
polymarket · 0x162b72f5d7afe8e4c6e2cc18f58e334aa45e7a4e0b775e57f09d7c0aa95eac7c
Magomed Ankalaev
polymarket · 0xb15a6681557609ccb2ad455ddab048d072de9e129318c8cf8e78cf1e09db26fd
Ian Machado Garry
polymarket · 0x98c8509c3da74813f38e6843bb014baa04a16cc655b361acd776101cea8ec780
Ciryl Gane
polymarket · 0x2cd190ae199174a4711aad7266dba9c1a175eeb0cc4b5fffa0b9180ad8a43702
Merab Dvalishvili
polymarket · 0xcbb99ffa85e7000f6cf5c544d2b308640d163e147b0c493e52c8ab52bc625856
Umar Nurmagomedov
polymarket · 0x908ceb5af95513b2c18969447ec50a0d80328ac593aaee71bea447727383bd60
Diego Lopes
polymarket · 0x8924cc8c8f5202840bcb10152659cc971d885ebe62b7eef17159c804ad0caaa4
Alexander Volkov
polymarket · 0x90602ccb0fed809af2371f85628c1848c4027ad984ada860aabdc9871343dc1a
Sean O'Malley
polymarket · 0xc6438b640c8c547bc021d4a23aa52996797f7f65d1b45119f2f7b12bb5770113
Paddy Pimblett
polymarket · 0x05c058b71c9c7a4e61c50918a56088b612dee55fcc6418d37658b281c5060056
Leon Edwards
polymarket · 0x3fac702c85504b69a0d3bb1dd974053d9e1017c924df0530032977b45826450c
Jiří Procházka
polymarket · 0xc04d2fbc1231e4c3173df29bdac008fd96f69bad913671f1dcddaf0f2d24dccb
Kamaru Usman
polymarket · 0x50471a709987906795d95df32308eada9f612d4be3c89cc50f33a496941d4e6e
Jack Della Maddalena
polymarket · 0x1e51be71928fffd8b03590bde0797bb2bfa9330b9ab27f3f6ba0dc497a2a5695
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.