Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Tsarukyan's contract at 15¢ shows extreme mispricing with an 802% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side, though the $0 24-hour volume and 28¢ spread suggest severe illiquidity is masking true market sentiment.
Analysis
Tsarukyan's contract at 15¢ shows extreme mispricing with an 802% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side, though the $0 24-hour volume and 28¢ spread suggest severe illiquidity is masking true market sentiment. The contract has collapsed 33% over seven days (22¢ to 15¢) amid 631% realized volatility, indicating either deteriorating odds or thin positioning being liquidated rather than informed repricing. With 258 days to expiry and only $134.7k open interest, this market lacks sufficient depth to reliably reflect Tsarukyan's actual championship probability, making the extreme yield more a liquidity premium than a genuine opportunity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xffd9a91d5a03eea092aff4f6f878ea668023cbb27a2c247aa00c1a24cbd78c81 yes 100