Will Sean O'Malley become UFC champion in 2026?
0xc6438b640c8c547bc021d4a23aa52996797f7f65d1b45119f2f7b12bb5770113 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 528.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 37.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 7.8% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 1.76 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1528% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 6.31 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 5.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 0% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
622 indicator snapshots · 6 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xc6438b640c8c547bc021d4a23aa52996797f7f65d1b45119f2f7b12bb5770113 yes 100