Will Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026?
This contract is priced at 23¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 42¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$159K
Best sibling
Jack Della Maddalena 3¢
Ticker
0x3fac702c…450c
Market snapshot
Leon Edwards in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026?. The displayed quote is 23¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $40K. In the Who will become a UFC champion in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #7 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC.
Outcome
Leon Edwards
Family rank
#7 of 16
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
23¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
Reported volume
$40K
Family context
16 outcomes · Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?
Quote range
3¢-57¢
Family leader
Ciryl Gane 57¢
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Venue identifier: 0x3fac702c85504b69a0d3bb1dd974053d9e1017c924df0530032977b45826450c. Family volume: $159K.
Price history
23¢ current
−4¢Orderbook snapshot
2 / 44¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3fac702c…450c
Event family
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$159K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Ciryl Gane 57¢
Current share
25%
Leon Edwards
polymarket · 0x3fac702c85504b69a0d3bb1dd974053d9e1017c924df0530032977b45826450c
Jack Della Maddalena
polymarket · 0x1e51be71928fffd8b03590bde0797bb2bfa9330b9ab27f3f6ba0dc497a2a5695
Manel Kape
polymarket · 0x162b72f5d7afe8e4c6e2cc18f58e334aa45e7a4e0b775e57f09d7c0aa95eac7c
Kamaru Usman
polymarket · 0x50471a709987906795d95df32308eada9f612d4be3c89cc50f33a496941d4e6e
Diego Lopes
polymarket · 0x8924cc8c8f5202840bcb10152659cc971d885ebe62b7eef17159c804ad0caaa4
Jiří Procházka
polymarket · 0xc04d2fbc1231e4c3173df29bdac008fd96f69bad913671f1dcddaf0f2d24dccb
Paddy Pimblett
polymarket · 0x05c058b71c9c7a4e61c50918a56088b612dee55fcc6418d37658b281c5060056
Arman Tsarukyan
polymarket · 0xffd9a91d5a03eea092aff4f6f878ea668023cbb27a2c247aa00c1a24cbd78c81
Ciryl Gane
polymarket · 0x2cd190ae199174a4711aad7266dba9c1a175eeb0cc4b5fffa0b9180ad8a43702
Sean O'Malley
polymarket · 0xc6438b640c8c547bc021d4a23aa52996797f7f65d1b45119f2f7b12bb5770113
Magomed Ankalaev
polymarket · 0xb15a6681557609ccb2ad455ddab048d072de9e129318c8cf8e78cf1e09db26fd
Merab Dvalishvili
polymarket · 0xcbb99ffa85e7000f6cf5c544d2b308640d163e147b0c493e52c8ab52bc625856
Umar Nurmagomedov
polymarket · 0x908ceb5af95513b2c18969447ec50a0d80328ac593aaee71bea447727383bd60
Alexandre Pantoja
polymarket · 0x0fb843bf13b1b59c0349b5dbb0c10272d287db9aeac1f9ca8e966b4f6588e034
Ian Machado Garry
polymarket · 0x98c8509c3da74813f38e6843bb014baa04a16cc655b361acd776101cea8ec780
Alexander Volkov
polymarket · 0x90602ccb0fed809af2371f85628c1848c4027ad984ada860aabdc9871343dc1a
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 23% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.