Will Jiří Procházka become UFC champion in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Jiří Procházka become UFC champion in 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24.5k open interest and a massive 62¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 34¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24.5k open interest and a massive 62¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 34¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 7-day collapse from 63¢ to 34¢ (46% decline) combined with extraordinary 1311% realized volatility and 9.63 vol ratio indicates recent sharp repricing, though the neutral regime and modest 2.9/h info arrival rate suggest this volatility may be noise rather than fundamental reassessment. With 258 days to expiry and Procházka currently holding the light heavyweight title, the 274.7% implied yield on "Yes" appears mispriced given his incumbent champion status—this warrants cross-venue comparison before trading.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc04d2fbc1231e4c3173df29bdac008fd96f69bad913671f1dcddaf0f2d24dccb yes 100