What is the current probability for "Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 47¢ (47% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on November 30, 2026. 220 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 187.5% and 147.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Polymarket, closing November 30, 2026.

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47¢

Bid/Ask 43/51¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $9.998·OI $22,502.73·Closes Nov 30, 2026·220d remaining

0x472a52fcd256f343c5e0c8ecc6afd074b15a7b8c0c7a8397b6e30e30564b6734

7-day price797 snapshots · 4 regime

54¢47¢ current

Apr 833¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election. If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 187.5%

IY (No) 147.5%

Adj IY 188%

CRI 1

RV 282%

VR 2.00

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	187.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	147.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	188%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	282%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.00	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 11:46:34 AM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 11:38:44 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x472a52fcd256f343c5e0c8ecc6afd074b15a7b8c0c7a8397b6e30e30564b6734 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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