Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market is pricing in a 35% probability of Wiles departing before end-2026, but the extremely high implied yield on the "Yes" side (262.8%) suggests significant underpricing relative to tail risk, particularly given the volatile 7-day decline from 41¢ to 35¢. With only $13.889 in 24-hour volume against $19.4M open interest, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns and indicating this may be a directional bet rather than an actively traded contract. The 258-day timeframe and low cliff risk index (2) suggest the market is pricing a relatively stable baseline scenario, though the sharp recent price movement warrants monitoring for sentiment shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Regime

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