Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

This MTG 2028 nomination contract is pricing in only a 24% probability despite offering an exceptional 185% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile. The market has experienced notable volatility with a 294% realized vol and a sharp 5-point decline over seven days (29¢ to 24¢), though near-zero 24h volume ($0) and tight $4,010 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that may be distorting the price. With 625 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 0.6/hour, this appears to be a thin, speculative contract where the low price may reflect both genuine skepticism about a Greene candidacy and the market's struggle to attract meaningful participation.

Resolution rules

If Marjorie Taylor Greene announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade