Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey before 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2687.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.4% on the No side, reflecting the low 5¢ price and substantial $8.7M open interest despite zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2687.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 7.4% on the No side, reflecting the low 5¢ price and substantial $8.7M open interest despite zero 24-hour volume. The 6¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the recent 40% decline from 7¢ to 5¢ over seven days suggests either new information about Antoine Massey or shifting market sentiment away from a pardon scenario. With 258 days to resolution and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a speculative position with limited liquidity rather than an actively traded market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa351f017fc3e489eac1c02153cc22bd9d02c520e257b88177d3a1fe1d537ec93 yes 100