Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $530k open interest, suggesting trapped positions and a wide 27¢ spread that likely doesn't reflect true fair value.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $530k open interest, suggesting trapped positions and a wide 27¢ spread that likely doesn't reflect true fair value. The 1003% realized volatility and 188% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "Yes" side indicate highly speculative pricing, possibly driven by low-liquidity dynamics rather than fundamental conviction about a pardon's likelihood. With 258 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of only 1.9 events per hour, this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where the 44¢ price may not be reliable for serious trading.
Also on kalshi at 13¢(Δ +36¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x25a847211096054f4e4b4a6a575ed7183da2ba692d9b97899742bdc6611a69ed yes 100