Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1431% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $8.9M open interest, suggesting thin liquidity and potential manipulation risk.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1431% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $8.9M open interest, suggesting thin liquidity and potential manipulation risk. The price has collapsed 40% over seven days (15¢ to 9¢) while realized volatility sits at 1131%, indicating either new information about Joe Exotic's pardon prospects or a liquidity event rather than fundamental reassessment. With 258 days until expiry and a 10/10 cliff risk index, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity premiums rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbb8c9abdefb768e1f5686f1274a96c4403fe801df50d3d84d1f886256705fc96 yes 100