What is the current probability for "Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 148.8% and 148.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 3/96¢·Spread 93¢·Vol $0·OI $18.2·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0xfcbc8e878762a0599bda65edefb8b21ebc438cfea024b4124b1e1a4dccb59cd4

7-day price2000 snapshots · 10 regime

67¢50¢ current

Apr 1328¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 148.8%

IY (No) 148.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 1070%

VR 8.57

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	148.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	148.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1070%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	8.57	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.86	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Spread

93¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 4:55:12 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 4:53:27 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xfcbc8e878762a0599bda65edefb8b21ebc438cfea024b4124b1e1a4dccb59cd4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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