Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $14.5k open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The astronomical 11,835% implied yield on the "Yes" side is a classic sign of a thin, potentially mispriced market where small positions can distort probability calculations. The recent 50% price decline from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days, combined with a 74-day runway to expiration and high cliff risk (24), indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether this confirmation vote will even occur as specified.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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