What is the current probability for "Who will win Players' Player of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 31¢ (31% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 618 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win Players' Player of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 144.6% and 24.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win Players' Player of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win Players' Player of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Who will win Players' Player of the Year?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This Haaland PFA market shows extreme volatility (1536% realized vol) with a sharp 7¢ rally over seven days, yet the 15¢ price implies only 15% win probability despite an exceptional 307% implied yield on Yes positions.

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31¢

Bid/Ask 25/31¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $1,029.44·OI $83,871.21·Closes Dec 31, 2027·618d remaining

KXPFAPOY-2526-EHAA

7-day price482 snapshots · 19 regime

29¢25¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This Haaland PFA market shows extreme volatility (1536% realized vol) with a sharp 7¢ rally over seven days, yet the 15¢ price implies only 15% win probability despite an exceptional 307% implied yield on Yes positions. The $83k open interest against just $728 daily volume suggests liquidity constraints that may be amplifying price swings, and with 624 days to expiry, the high cliff risk index (5) indicates significant event concentration risk around the 2025-26 season awards announcement.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 23¢(Δ +8¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 938.8%Close-time delta 11703h

Resolution rules

If Erling Haaland wins the Professional Footballers' Association (PFA) Players' Player of the Year in the 2025-2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 144.6%

IY (No) 24.1%

Adj IY 145%

CRI 2

RV 2592%

VR 15.32

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	144.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	24.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	145%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2592%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	15.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:18:22 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:23 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPFAPOY-2526-EHAA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →