Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) for Chakrabarti's primary advancement, yet the extreme implied yield on the No side (1637%) combined with a 297% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 9 suggests significant tail risk that the market may be underpricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) for Chakrabarti's primary advancement, yet the extreme implied yield on the No side (1637%) combined with a 297% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 9 suggests significant tail risk that the market may be underpricing. The 7-day price surge from 78¢ to 90¢ indicates recent positive sentiment, but the modest 24-hour volume of $2,563 and tight open interest of $13,598 raise liquidity concerns for a market with over 200 days to expiry, potentially making the 97¢ price vulnerable to sharp reversals on new information.
Resolution rules
If Saikat Chakrabarti advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA11PRIMARY-26-SCHA yes 100