Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election
Leader sits at 93% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Aisha Wahab
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Rakhi Israni Singh
Spread
89pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$840
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election
Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?: Aisha Wahab
KXCA14SWINNER-26-AWAH
Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?: Melissa Hernandez
KXCA14SWINNER-26-MHER
Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?: Rakhi Israni Singh
KXCA14SWINNER-26-RSIN
Analysis
The 93% probability for Aisha Wahab represents the market's assessment that she is the heavy favorite to win California's 14th congressional district special election in 2026. This high confidence reflects her current political positioning and name recognition in the district. The probability could shift based on late candidate entries, endorsements from established figures, or turnout patterns in special elections, which historically show lower participation and can produce unexpected outcomes. The election itself will serve as the definitive resolution point, with results determining the actual winner. Polling data, campaign spending, and voter registration trends leading into the election date will likely influence market pricing in the final weeks.
- ›Aisha Wahab holds 93% contract value compared to 4% and 3% for nearest competitors, indicating concentrated market confidence
- ›Special elections typically feature lower turnout and higher volatility than general elections, creating potential for outcome shifts
- ›No active trading volume ($0 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited recent information flow or market reassessment of the three-candidate field
- ›Late candidate entry or withdrawal before the election deadline could alter the competitive landscape and shift probabilities
- ›Endorsement patterns and campaign resource allocation by established Democratic or Republican figures may serve as leading indicators of shifting expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 18Melissa Hernandez↓5pp9→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Melissa Hernandez↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Melissa Hernandez↑4pp4→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Aisha Wahab↓3pp97→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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