Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
439 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election
Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?: Rakhi Israni Singh
KXCA14SWINNER-26-RSIN
Analysis
The 93% probability for Aisha Wahab represents the market's assessment that she is the heavy favorite to win California's 14th congressional district special election in 2026. This high confidence reflects her current political positioning and name recognition in the district. The probability could shift based on late candidate entries, endorsements from established figures, or turnout patterns in special elections, which historically show lower participation and can produce unexpected outcomes. The election itself will serve as the definitive resolution point, with results determining the actual winner. Polling data, campaign spending, and voter registration trends leading into the election date will likely influence market pricing in the final weeks.
- ›Aisha Wahab holds 93% contract value compared to 4% and 3% for nearest competitors, indicating concentrated market confidence
- ›Special elections typically feature lower turnout and higher volatility than general elections, creating potential for outcome shifts
- ›No active trading volume ($0 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited recent information flow or market reassessment of the three-candidate field
- ›Late candidate entry or withdrawal before the election deadline could alter the competitive landscape and shift probabilities
- ›Endorsement patterns and campaign resource allocation by established Democratic or Republican figures may serve as leading indicators of shifting expectations
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 1d
- Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primarylast 84% · 2d
- Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governorlast 91% · 3d
- Will Steve Friess be the Republican nominee for WY-ALlast 47% · 3d
- Will Brent Bien be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyominglast 65% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for the House, Senate a Toss-up
The 2026 midterm election market is vibrant, with Democrats heavily favored to retake the House (84¢) but the Senate control is a coin flip (47¢ D vs 52¢ R). Key state-level races like Michigan Senate (D 62¢) and Georgia Senate (D 92¢) show Democratic strength. This divergence between House and Senate expectations creates interesting spread-trading opportunities between the two chambers.
2026 Senate Control Hinges on a Knife's Edge — Republicans at 52¢
The 2026 Senate control contract (CONTROLS-2026) is the most liquid election market across all platforms, with GOP control priced at 52¢ vs. Democrats at 48¢. Key battleground states like Ohio (51¢ D), Michigan (57¢ D), and Texas (50¢ R) are aligning with the national narrative of a highly competitive map.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.