Who will win the CA-11 House election
Leader sits at 65% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Scott Wiener
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Connie Chan
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
418 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the CA-11 House election
Analysis
The CA-11 House election prediction market shows Scott Wiener favored at 68%, meaning traders assess a roughly two-to-one probability he'll win the seat over Connie Chan. This reflects expected performance based on candidate fundraising, past voting patterns in the district, and current polling data. The probability remains open to revision as campaign dynamics evolve and more information emerges. Key uncertainties include last-minute endorsements, turnout patterns, and whether unforeseen campaign events shift voter sentiment. The general election itself will resolve this market with certainty on Election Day 2026, at which point all remaining uncertainty disappears.
- ›Scott Wiener's 68% probability implies he holds a meaningful but not overwhelming structural advantage in the race
- ›The 39-percentage-point gap between Wiener and Chan reflects either significant polling divergence or market assessment of one candidate's weakness
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume on Chan's contract ($0) suggests limited recent market activity to test conviction in the current odds
- ›California's 11th district voting history and demographic composition form the baseline from which the 68% probability is anchored
- ›Campaign cash on hand, field operations strength, and any recent polling releases would be concrete metrics that move these probabilities materially
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (65% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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The 2026 midterm cycle is heating up with high-volume markets on House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. The current probabilities suggest a competitive environment, with key swing states like Texas, Iowa, and Michigan drawing the most action.
Democrats heavily favored to flip the House; Texas Senate race a key upset risk
The House control market shows a 10¢ vs 89¢ split for Republicans vs Democrats, implying a 9-to-1 probability of a Democratic majority. Texas' Senate race is more competitive, with the Democratic candidate at 57¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.