Who will win the CA-11 House election
Leader sits at 67% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Scott Wiener
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Connie Chan
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$10K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the CA-11 House election
Analysis
The market indicates an 86% probability that Scott Wiener will win California's 11th congressional House seat in 2026. This reflects current expectations based on available information about the race, though the actual outcome remains uncertain. The probability is primarily driven by Wiener's strong performance expectations in both the primary and general election phases, as evidenced by his 93-cent primary contract price. Saikat Chakrabarti, another candidate, shows 34 cents in the general election market, indicating meaningful but lower perceived viability. Key factors that could shift this probability include primary election results (which would clarify the likely general election matchup), late-breaking campaign developments, or significant shifts in voter preference data. The race will be resolved following the November 2026 general election, though primary results in June 2026 will likely create major repricing across these contracts as the field narrows and clearer matchups emerge.
- ›Scott Wiener trades at 93¢ in the primary contract, suggesting market confidence he will secure the Democratic nomination in what appears to be a heavily Democratic district
- ›Saikat Chakrabarti's general election contract (34¢) and primary prospects (implied lower probability) indicate meaningful competition but not sufficient to dislodge the current frontrunner
- ›24-hour volume is highest on the general election Chakrabarti contract ($5,099), suggesting active disagreement or information flow about alternative outcomes
- ›The gap between Wiener's primary price (93¢) and general election price (62¢) indicates some expectation of general election vulnerability, though modest
- ›Primary election scheduled for June 2026 will serve as a major catalyst, potentially clarifying field dynamics and triggering significant probability shifts across all candidate contracts
What moved the line
- Jun 25Connie Chan↑20pp27→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Scott Wiener↓18pp70→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (67% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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