Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $42.64 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $42.64 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread. The 866.9% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic illiquidity artifact—Finland's actual chances of winning the jury vote are almost certainly not this skewed, suggesting the market is severely mispriced due to thin trading. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 6, there's time for more informed traders to enter and arbitrage this pricing inefficiency.
Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Finland wins the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONJURY-26-FIN yes 100