Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $616.48 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 98.3% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high relative to the neutral regime score and modest 2-point spread, suggesting either significant mispricing or very thin order book depth. With 867 days until expiration and minimal price movement (29¢ to 30¢ over seven days), this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market discovery rather than an actively traded contract.

Resolution rules

If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is National Unity of Hope, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade