Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing September 29, 2028. This market is essentially illiquid with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 72.4% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high relative to the 897-day time horizon, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk priced into a Smer-SD coalition outcome. The extremely tight 1¢ spread and flat 7-day price action indicate minimal market activity and conviction, so this contract would be difficult to exit at posted prices.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Slovak parliamentary election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is Coalition including Smer-SD, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSLOVAKIAPARLI-27-SMER yes 100