Will 6+ coins launched in 2026 end the year above $1B FDV?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $535k open interest, creating a massive 43¢ bid-ask spread that inflates the Yes yield to an unrealistic 314%. The 1229% realized volatility and 7.69 vol ratio indicate price discovery is severely impaired, making the 31¢ quote potentially unrepresentative of true conviction. With 259 days to resolution and a neutral regime, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to generate reliable probability estimates—the high yield primarily reflects illiquidity premium rather than genuine market optimism about six 2026-launched coins reaching $1B FDV.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 6 or more tokens launched in 2026 end the year with an FDV above $1B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data). Stablecoins, LSTs, liquidity pool tokens, or synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Indicators

Regime

Trade