Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of April?

The 92¢ price reflects an extremely lopsided risk profile, with the "No" side offering a theoretical 37,090% annualized yield versus just 280.5% for "Yes"—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep conviction that AMZN will stay above $220 or severe illiquidity pricing in the tail risk. With zero 24-hour volume, $573k open interest, and only 11 days to expiration, this market is essentially frozen with no price discovery occurring, making the 8¢ spread and 101% realized volatility metrics potentially stale. The neutral regime and 0.8 info arrivals per hour suggest limited catalyst flow, so the extreme odds may simply reflect a lack of active traders willing to take the contrarian "No" position at any reasonable price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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