Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of April?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility metrics that warrant caution: with only $100 in 24-hour volume against $943 open interest and a 21¢ spread, the 50¢ mid-price likely reflects minimal actual trading activity rather than genuine consensus. The astronomical implied yields (3344% for Yes, 3087% for No) are artifacts of the thin liquidity and 11-day expiry window, while the 970% realized volatility and 1.91 vol ratio suggest this contract has experienced wild swings—the recent 5¢ price decline from 55¢ indicates recent downward pressure despite the neutral regime score. With a Cliff Risk Index of 1 and only 11 days to resolution, this market is extremely sensitive to any Amazon news or broader market moves, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with execution risk and potential wide slippage.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Indicators

Regime

Trade